东道国贸易保护促进了中国的对外直接投资吗？—

摘要通过分析贸易成本对企业投资决策的作用机制,利用2004—2015年中国对世界83个国家和地区的投资流量数据,基于系统GMM方法实证考察了贸易成本对中国对外直接投资的影响。整体样本和子样本的研究结果均表明,贸易成本的上升显著地抑制了中国的对外直接投资,这在一定程度上解释了贸易自由化导致对外直接投资增长的这一“悖论”。总体而言,贸易成本每上升1个百分点,中国对外直接投资减少1.207个百分点。上述结论证实“关税跳跃”理论关于贸易成本的增加促进对外直接投资的预期与中国现状并不相符。中国政府只有从宏观层面打破贸易壁垒、降低与东道国之间的贸易成本,才是促进对外直接投资的可行途径。

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	李敏杰
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关键词：贸易保护贸易成本对外直接投资 “关税跳跃”理论系统GMM

Abstract： By analyzing the mechanism of trade costs on enterprises’ investment decision and using the data of China’s investment flow to 83 countries and regions during the period from 2004 to 2015, this paper applies SYS-GMM to examine the impact of trade costs on China’s OFDI. The results of the overall sample and subsamples show that the increasing trade costs inhibit China’s OFDI, which to some extent explains the “paradox” that trade liberalization leads to the OFDI growth. Overall, China’s OFDI decreases by 1.207% when the cost of trade rises by 1%. The implication of the findings is that the “Tariff Jump” theory, that the increase of trade costs promotes the OFDI, is not consistent with China’s current situation. It also means that the feasible way for Chinese government to promote OFDI is to break down trade barriers from the macro level and to reduce the bilateral trade costs with the host country.

Keywords： Trade Protection Trade Cost Outward Foreign Direct Investment “Tariff Jump” Theory SYS-GMM

收稿日期 2018-08-09; 接受日期 ;

基金资助:国家社会科学基金项目(18BGL018)

作者简介: 李敏杰(1990— ),女,河南平顶山人,博士研究生,主要从事物流业对外直接投资研究;王健(1959—),男,福建福州人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事区域物流和产业物流研究。

引用本文:

李敏杰,王健.东道国贸易保护促进了中国的对外直接投资吗？——基于贸易成本的视角[J]. 经济经纬, 2019,2: 56-63

LI Min-jie,WANG Jian.Does the Host Country Trade Protection Promote China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment? ——From the Perspective of Trade Costs[J] Economic Survey, 2019,V36(2): 56-63

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2019/V36/I2/56