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    经济经纬 2019 Issue (1) :126-133
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    央行沟通、政策不确定性与通胀预期
    王少林, 丁杰
    广东财经大学 金融学院,广东 广州 510320
    Central Bank Communication, Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations
    WANG Shao-lin, DING Jie
    School of Finance, Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, Guangzhou 510320, China
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摘要 

未来政策不确定是公众通胀预期波动的重要源泉。基于此,建立具有时变参数的VAR模型(TVP-SV-VAR),分析政策不确定性如何作用于公众通胀预期,然后界定央行沟通通过降低政策不确定性影响公众通胀预期这一路径的解释力。结果表明:第一,政策不确定性的上升将提高公众通胀预期,这主要源自于在较高政策不确定性下政策制定者的宽松型政策偏好;第二, 央行沟通上升1个点将最大降低政策不确定性10个点左右,而政策不确定性降低1个点将最大降低公众通胀预期0.003个点左右;第三,央行沟通上升1点将最大降低公众通胀预期0.1个点左右。央行沟通通过降低政策不确定性实现公众通胀预期管理这一途径的解释力明显不足。深化央行沟通与提高其他政策的透明度是进一步减少政策不确定性和稳定公众通胀预期的有益尝试。

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王少林
丁杰
关键词央行沟通   政策不确定性   通胀预期     
Abstract

Future policy uncertainty is an important source of public inflation expectations. Based on this, this article establishes a VAR model with time-varying parameters (TVP-SV-VAR),then analyzes how policy uncertainty is applied to public inflation expectations, and defines the explanatory power of the influence path of central bank communication on public inflation expectations through reducing policy uncertainty. The results show that: first, the rise in policy uncertainty will raise public inflation expectations, which is mainly due to the loose-type policy preferences of policymakers under the high policy uncertainty; second, a one-point increase in central bank communication will reduce policy uncertainty by a maximum of 10 points, while the drop of 1 point in policy uncertainty will reduce public inflation expectations by a maximum of 0.003 points; third, a one-point increase in central bank communication will reduce public inflation expectations by a maximum of 0.1 points. The explanatory power of the assumption that central bank communication realizes the regulation of public inflation expectations by reducing policy uncertainty is obviously insufficient. It would be a beneficial attempt to deepen the central bank communication and improve the transparency of other policies in the future in hope of reducing policy uncertainty and stabilizing public inflation expectations.

KeywordsCentral Bank Communication   Policy Uncertainty   Inflation Expectations     
收稿日期 2018-06-11; 接受日期 2019-01-16;
基金资助:

国家社会科学基金项目(15CJL008)

作者简介: 王少林(1984— ),男,江西安福人,博士研究生,副教授,主要从事宏观经济学、应用计量经济学研究;丁杰(1981— ),男,湖北襄阳人,博士研究生讲师,主要从事互联网金融研究。
引用本文:   
王少林, 丁杰.央行沟通、政策不确定性与通胀预期[J].  经济经纬, 2019,1: 126-133
WANG Shao-lin, DING Jie.Central Bank Communication, Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations[J]  Economic Survey, 2019,V36(1): 126-133
链接本文:  
http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/     或     http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2019/V36/I1/126
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