Abstract：
Using stochastic dynamic optimization, this paper first includes uncertainty in building the land transfer price model for state-owned land. Then it carries out an econometrical analysis of state-owned land transfer price using provincial spatial dynamic panel data. The findings of empirical analysis are:(1) There exists space-time dynamic effect in the state-owned land transfer price;(2) Economic development raises the transfer price for state-owned land while the uncertainty of economic development reduces that price; (3) Rent for agricultural land and the proportion of agricultural land area to total land area have negative effects on unit transfer price of state-owned land. Therefore, the government should strengthen dynamic budget management of land transfer income and pay due attention to the spatial association of land transfer among different regions.
2017 
