1.School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China; 2. Institute of Metal Resources Strategy, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China 3. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
Abstract：
This paper makes an empirical research on main “Chinese demand” to influencing international non-ferrous metal prices, and analyzes the dynamic relationship among gross industrial output value, total imports value, money supply and international non-ferrous metal prices by constructing a State Space Model of variable parameter with monthly data from 2001 to 2013. The result shows that: “Chinese demand” on the dynamic impact of international non-ferrous metal prices trajectories have changed dramatically in May 2009. The influence of “Chinese demand” on international non-ferrous metal prices became stable since May 2009, which reflects the trend that China's non-ferrous metals demand is gradually changing from rising period into stable period of Kuznets curve. Besides, the influence coefficients of gross industrial output value and total imports value to international non-ferrous metal prices are almost as positive, and as a result of the action of speculative inventory, contrary to expectations, the money supply has a significant negative relationship with the international non-ferrous metal prices overall.
ZHU Xue-hong,CHEN Jin-yu,ZHONG Mei-rui,GUO Yao-qi.The “Chinese Demand” Decomposition and Explanation of International Non-Ferrous Metal Prices[J] Economic Survey, 2015,V32(6): 65-70
2015 
