农村剩余劳动力迁移的充要条件分析—

摘要笔者结合收益成本理论及托达罗模型，在对农民预期迁移收益和成本分析的基础上，通过调研数据，分别对“就地”和“异地”两种迁移方式以及迁移前后的收益进行对比分析。结论显示:第一，农村剩余劳动力就地迁移和异地迁移的最低期望月薪差值远远大于异地迁移成本；第二，农民对就地迁移和异地迁移的最低期望月收入分别是农民在农村剔除务工收入后人均月收入的3.42倍和4.80倍，这两个比例数值即是本文寻求的焦点——农村剩余劳动力迁移的充要条件，并且该比例数值可能会随着不同地区农村经济水平的提高而减小。

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	胡阿丽
	王征兵

关键词：成本收益分析托达罗模型农业剩余劳动力迁移充要条件

Abstract： In combination with the theory of benefit-cost and Todaro Model, on the basis of an analysis of farmers‘expectant benefit and cost for the migration, through studying the collected data, the authors made a comparative analysis of the “local migration” and “long-distance migration” and their income before and after the two different ways of migration.The conclusions are as follows: firstly, the difference between the lowest expected incomes for “local migration” and “long-distance migration” is much more than the cost of “long-distance migration”; secondly, farmers’ lowest expected monthly incomes for “local migration” and “long-distance migration” are respectively 3.42 and 4.80 times their monthly income per capita in the village(excluding the income gained as migrant workers). Those two ratios are just the focus of this paper——the necessary and sufficient conditions for the migration of rural surplus labor, and the two ratios may decrease depending on the economic level of different rural areas.

Keywords： benefit-cost analysis Todaro Model migration of rural surplus labor necessary and sufficient conditions

收稿日期 2011-04-02; 接受日期 ; 网刊发表日期 2011-09-25

基金资助:

教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划课题 (NCET-05-859 )。

作者简介: 胡阿丽（1984-），女，陕西咸阳人，西北农林科技大学与美国密歇根州立大学联合培养博士研究生，主要从事企业战略管理研究；王征兵（1964-），男，陕西兴平人，西北农林科技大学经济管理学院教授、博士研究生导师,主要从事农业经济理论与政策研究。

引用本文:

胡阿丽, 王征兵.农村剩余劳动力迁移的充要条件分析——基于预期收入成本理论[J]. 经济经纬, 2011,5: 90-94

HU A-li, WANG Zheng-bing.An Analysis of the Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for the Migration of Rural Surplus Labor——Based on the Expected Benefit-cost Theory[J] Economic Survey, 2011,V28(5): 90-94

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2011/V28/I5/90