房价对城镇居民消费不平等的影响研究

摘要基于中国家庭追踪调查库(CFPS)2010—2018年数据,采用面板计量模型和中介效应模型,研究房价对城镇居民消费不平等的影响效应及作用机制。结果表明:房价会正向影响城镇居民消费不平等,运用工具变量法进行内生性检验以及其他稳健性检验后,以上结论稳健。机制检验结果表明,房价会通过家庭人均消费支出影响城镇居民消费不平等,房价对居住支出和教育文化娱乐支出的影响程度较大,进一步说明房价上升会通过影响消费结构加剧城镇居民消费不平等。异质性检验结果表明,相对于城镇中低收入、中低金融资产家庭而言,房价变动对城镇高收入、高金融资产家庭居民消费的影响更明显。为此,应稳定房价、合理引导住房支出和调整居民消费结构,以促进消费公平,缩小消费不平等。

	Service

	把本文推荐给朋友
	加入我的书架
	加入引用管理器
	Email Alert
	RSS
	作者相关文章
	鞠方
	罗嘉昊
	周建军
	蒋涵玉

关键词：房价变动消费不平等财富效应消费结构

Abstract： Based on the data of China Household tracking Survey Database (CFPS) from 2010 to 2018, this paper systematically studies the effect and mechanism of house price on urban residents’ consumption inequality by using panel econometric model and intermediary effect model. The results show that house prices will positively affect the consumption inequality of urban residents. And the above conclusion is robust after using the instrumental variable method for endogenous test and other robustness tests. The result of mechanism test indicates that house price will affect the consumption inequality of urban residents through household per capita consumption expenditure.The greater impact of housing prices on housing expenditure and education, culture and entertainment expenditure further shows that the rise in housing prices will aggravate the consumption inequality of urban residents by affecting the consumption structure. The heterogeneity test results show that, compared with urban families with low and low income and low and middle financial assets, the impact of house price changes on the consumption of urban households with high income and high financial assets is more obvious. To this end, we should stabilize housing prices, properly guide housing expenditures and adjust the structure of household consumption, so as to promote consumption fairness and narrow consumption inequality.

Keywords： Housing Price Change Consumption Inequality Wealth Effect Consumption Structure

收稿日期 2023-09-11; 接受日期 ;

基金资助:国家社会科学基金重点项目(23AJL013);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(21JZD024)

作者简介: 鞠方(1975— ),女,湖南长沙人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事房地产经济学和房地产金融研究;罗嘉昊(1995— ),男,湖南湘潭人,博士研究生,主要从事房地产经济学研究;周建军(1974— ),男,湖南桃江人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事房地产经济学和房地产金融研究;蒋涵玉(1998— ),女,湖南岳阳人,硕士研究生,主要从事房地产经济学研究。

引用本文:

鞠方, 罗嘉昊, 周建军, 蒋涵玉.房价对城镇居民消费不平等的影响研究[J]. 经济经纬, 2024,2: 77-87

JYU Fang, LUO Jiahao, ZHOU Jianjun, JIANG Hanyu.A Study on the Influence of House Price on the Consumption Inequality of Urban Residents[J] Economic Survey, 2024,V41(2): 77-87

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2024/V41/I2/77

陈斌开,杨汝岱,2013.土地供给、住房价格与中国城镇居民储蓄[J].经济研究(1):110-122.
高帆,2014.中国城乡消费差距的拐点判定及其增长效应[J].统计研究(12):41-46.
何圣财,刘力臻,2015.中国居民资产财富效应的地区差异分析[J].统计与决策(8):90-93.
何兴强,杨锐锋,2019.房价收入比与家庭消费:基于房产财富效应的视角[J].经济研究(12):102-117.
黄静,屠梅曾,2009.房地产财富与消费:来自于家庭微观调查数据的证据[J].管理世界(7):35-45.
赖溟溟,白钦先,2008.我国居民消费财富效应的实证研究[J].上海金融(8):15-18.
李剑,2015.住房资产、价格波动与我国城镇居民消费行为:基于传导渠道的分析[J].财经研究(8):90-104.
李剑,臧旭恒,2015.住房价格波动与中国城镇居民消费行为:基于2004—2011年省际动态面板数据的分析[J].南开经济研究(1):89-101.
李天祥,苗建军,2011.房价上涨对国民经济影响的理论分析:基于房地产财富效应传导机制视角[J].软科学(2):57-61,71.
李小克,李小平,2016.城乡收入不平等对城乡居民消费差距的影响[J].地域研究与开发(4):12-15,21.
刘靖,陈斌开,2021.房价上涨扩大了中国消费不平等吗?[J].经济学(季刊)(4):1253-1274.
柳如眉,2022.信贷宽松、房价上涨与家庭杠杆率上升:基于OECD国家面板门槛模型的实证检验[J].辽宁大学学报(哲学社会科学版)(2):24-35.
罗丽,李晓峰,2021.进城农民工家庭化迁移对城镇地区消费不平等的影响:基于家庭异质性的研究[J].经济经纬(3):24-33.
曲兆鹏,赵忠,2008.老龄化对我国农村消费和收入不平等的影响[J].经济研究(12):85-99,149.
宋勃,高波,2007.房价与地价关系的因果检验:1998—2006[J].当代经济科学(1):72-77,126.
孙豪,胡志军,陈建东,2017.中国消费基尼系数估算及社会福利分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究(12):41-57.
孙豪,毛中根,桂河清,2019.中国居民消费不平等:审视与应对[J].现代经济探讨(4):8-14.
汪伟,沈洁,王文鹏,2020.房价与居民消费不平等[J].山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版)(6):88-101.
魏艳华,刘东,王丙参,2021.中国家庭人均收入与消费的不平等测度[J].统计与决策(13):76-79.
解垩,2008.城乡居民健康消费差异与分解[J].农业技术经济(5):57-66.
杨赞,张欢,赵丽清,2014.中国住房的双重属性:消费和投资的视角[J].经济研究(1):55-65.
尹志超,仇化,潘学峰,2021.住房财富对中国城镇家庭消费的影响[J].金融研究(2):114-132.
张翼,林晓珊,2015.消费不平等:资源支配逻辑和机会结构重塑[J].甘肃社会科学(4):1-7.
张哲,谢家智,2018.中国农村家庭资产配置影响因素的实证研究[J].经济问题探索(9):150-164.
周广肃,李沙浪,2016.消费不平等会引发社会信任危机吗?[J].浙江社会科学(7):11-21,53,155.
周建军,孙倩倩,鞠方,2020.产业结构变迁对房价的时空动态效应研究:基于人口老龄化背景的实证分析[J].管理科学学报(3):41-64.
周利,易行健,2020.房价上涨?家庭债务与城镇居民消费:贷款价值比的视角[J].中国管理科学(11):80-89.
邹红,李奥蕾,喻开志,2013.消费不平等的度量、出生组分解和形成机制:兼与收入不平等比较[J].经济学(季刊)(4):1231-1254.
Aguiar M,Bils M,2015.Has consumption inequality mirrored income inequality? [J].American economic review,105(9):2725-2756.
Benjamin J D,Chinloy P,Jud G D,2004.Real estate versus financial wealth in consumption[J].The Journal of real estate finance and economics,29(3):341-354.
Blundell R,Etheridge B,2010.Consumption,income and earnings inequality in Britain[J].Review of economic dynamics,13(1):76-102.
Case K E,Quigley J M,Shiller R J,2005.Comparing wealth effects:the stock market versus the housing market[J].The BE journal of macroeconomics,5(1):1-34.
Cho S,2011.Housing wealth effect on consumption:evidence from household level data[J].Economics letters,113(2):192-194.
Ciarlone A,2011.Housing wealth effect in emerging economies[J].Emerging markets review,12(4):399-417.
Cutler D M,Katz L F,1992.Rising inequality,Changes in the distribution of income and consumption in the 1980s[J].American economic review,82(2):546-551.
Hayes A F,2015.An index and test of linear moderated mediation[J].Multivariate behavioral research,50(1):1-22.
Idrees M,Ahmad E,2010.Measurement and decomposition of consumption inequality in Pakistan[J].The Lahore journal of economics,15(2):97-112.
Krueger D,Perri F,2003.On the welfare consequences of the increase in inequality in the United States[J].NBER macroeconomics annual,18(1):83-121.
Osberg L,2000.Poverty in Canada and the United States:measurement,trends,and implications[J].The Canadian journal of economics/revue canadienned economique,33(4):847-877.
Phang S Y,2004.House prices and aggregate consumption:do they move together? Evidence from Singapore[J].Journal of housing economics,13(2):101-119.
Raphael B,Stuart G,Gary P,2009.Housing wealth,financial wealth,and consumption:new evidence from micro data[J].Regional science and urban economics,39(1):79-89.