产业升级背景下农民工就业结构变化及影响因素研究

摘要产业升级势必对农民工的就业产生深刻的影响。使用2011年和2016年国家卫生计生委中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)数据,结合测度各省技术进步水平的宏观年鉴数据,实证分析了产业升级背景下农民工就业结构的变化趋势及影响因素。结果表明:农民工就业岗位结构呈现出“降级”趋势;技术进步改变了代际、性别、受教育水平、工作经验、社会关系及家庭经济因素等个体微观特征对农民工就业结构的影响效应,它推动了接受高等教育的农民工就业向上流动但导致接受中等教育的农民工就业向下流动,并降低了工作经验在农民工就业流动中的积极作用,还降低了社会关系在农民工寻找工作中的积极作用,并推动了家境较优越农民工就业结构的“极化”。稳健性检验也证明了上述结论。

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	李天成
	孟繁邨

关键词：技术进步农民工就业结构个体微观特征

Abstract： Industrial upgrading is bound to have a profound impact on the employment of migrant workers. This paper uses the 2011 and 2016 the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) data, combined with the macro annual data of the technical progress level of each province, empirically analyzes the trends and influencing factors of migrant workers' employment structure in the context of industrial upgrading. Studies have shown that the job structure of migrant workers' employment shows a trend of “downgrade”. Technological advancement has changed the influence of individual micro-features such as intergenerational, gender, education level, work experience, social relations and family economic factors on the employment structure of migrant workers. Technological advancement promoted employment upward flow of migrant workers receiving college education or above but lead to employment downward flow of migrant workers receiving high school education, and reduced the positive role of work experience in employment mobility; Technological advancement reduced the positive role of social relations in job hunting, and promoted the polarization of employment structure of migrant workers with better family conditions. The robustness test also proves the above conclusions.

Keywords： Technological Progress Migrant Workers Employment Structure Individual Micro-characteristics

收稿日期 2019-05-10; 接受日期 ;

基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目(71973046);广州市哲学社会科学规划课题(2020GZGJ74)

作者简介: 李天成(1989— ),男,河北石家庄人,博士研究生,主要从事流动人口就业研究;孟繁邨(1980— ),女,河南汝南人,博士研究生,主要从事流动人口健康研究。

引用本文:

李天成, 孟繁邨.产业升级背景下农民工就业结构变化及影响因素研究[J]. 经济经纬, 2020,4: 47-55

LI Tiancheng, MENG Fancun.Research on the Change of Migrant Workers' Employment Structure and Influencing Factors Under the Background of Industrial Upgrade[J] Economic Survey, 2020,V37(4): 47-55

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2020/V37/I4/47

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