全面二孩政策、人口老龄化与劳动力供给

摘要在全面二孩政策下设计了四种总和生育率方案,并通过育龄妇女生育模式的设计测算了我国未来总人口规模、劳动年龄人口规模以及老龄化规模。在此基础上,通过劳动参与率的假设预测了我国2018—2050年劳动力供给规模和结构的变化趋势。研究发现:总和生育率每提高0.1,劳动力供给数量相应增加1300万～1400万,但是四种总和生育率方案下我国未来劳动力供给都呈现下降的态势,这表明全面二孩政策的实施确实有助于改善我国劳动力供给规模,但是作用有限;随着总和生育率的提高,15～29岁年龄组劳动力供给结构占比得到了一定的缓解,30～34岁年龄组劳动力供给结构占比逐渐上升,35～64岁年龄组劳动力供给结构占比逐步下降,同时男性劳动力供给结构占比逐步下降。可见全面二孩政策能够改善劳动力供给结构。最后在结论的基础上提出了政策建议。

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	张鹏飞

关键词：全面二孩政策劳动力供给总和生育率年龄组

Abstract： This paper designs four plans of the total fertility rate under the universal two-child policy and calculates the future total population scale, working-age population scale and aging population scale under the birth model design for women of childbearing age. Through the hypothesis of the labor participation rate this paper forecasts the trend of scale and structure of labor supply in China between 2018 and 2050. It is found that with every increase of 0.1 in the total fertility rate, the number of Chinese labor supply will increase by 13-14 million. But the future labor supply in China decreases under all four total fertility rate plans which indicates that the universal two-child policy can improve the scale of labor supply but with limited impacts. With the increase of the total fertility rate, the proportion of the 15-29 age group in labor supply structure has been alleviated while that of the 30-34 age group has gradually increased and that of the 35-64 age group has gradually decreased. In the meantime, the proportion of male labor in labor supply structure has gradually decreased which shows universal two-child policy can indeed improve the labor supply structure. The paper also offers policy suggestions based on conclusions.

Keywords： Universal Two-child Policy Labor Supply Total Fertility Rate Age Group

收稿日期 2018-10-29; 接受日期 ;

作者简介: 张鹏飞(1993— ),男,山东聊城人,博士研究生,主要从事劳动经济与社会保障研究。

引用本文:

张鹏飞.全面二孩政策、人口老龄化与劳动力供给[J]. 经济经纬, 2019,3: 134-141

ZHANG Peng-fei.Universal Two-child Policy,Population Aging and Labor Supply[J] Economic Survey, 2019,V36(3): 134-141

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2019/V36/I3/134