老龄化、养老保险与中国城镇居民储蓄率

摘要使用1995—2016年省级城镇面板数据,对中国城镇居民储蓄率与人口老龄化和养老保险制度的关系进行实证研究。实证结果表明:养老金依赖程度高的区域,老龄化加剧降低储蓄率;依赖程度低的区域,养老金占工资比例上升对储蓄率的降低作用更显著,养老保险缴费率降低会减少储蓄率;在职人员参保率上升,在养老金依赖程度低的区域降低了储蓄率,在养老金依赖程度高的区域提高了储蓄率。因此,在养老金依赖程度高的区域积极开发老年市场,在依赖程度低的区域继续增加参保人数,提高养老金并减少养老保险缴费,有利于降低居民储蓄率。

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	杨志媛
	盖骁敏

关键词：人口老龄化养老保险城镇居民储蓄率

Abstract： Using the provincial panel data of urban household survey (1995-2016), this paper conducts an empirical study of the effects of population aging and old-age insurance on the saving rates of urban residents; how the dependency of aged people on pensions influences these effects is also discussed. The results show that when the elderly rely more on pensions, the negative effect of old dependency ratio on saving rates becomes stronger. When there are less elderly people who rely on pensions, the negative correlation between pensions and the saving rates is more significant and reducing the burden of old-age insurance contribution can help decrease the saving rates. As the elderly rely more on pensions, the effect of increased contributors (workers and employees) of the old-age insurance on saving rates turns from negative to positive. Therefore, to reduce the saving rates, it is necessary to continue increasing the number of workers and employees contributed to the old-age insurance as well as the pension income and reducing the old-age insurance contribution, especially in the areas where the elderly rely less on pensions. In addition, it is also helpful to exploit Chinese grey market when the elderly rely more on pensions.

Keywords： Population Aging The Old-age Insurance Saving Rates of Urban Residents

收稿日期 2019-03-06; 接受日期 ;

基金资助:教育部人文社会科学研究项目(15YJA790015)

作者简介: 杨志媛(1991— ),女,山东滨州人,博士研究生,主要从事人口经济学和消费经济学研究;盖骁敏(1973— ),女,山东烟台人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事发展经济学和产业组织理论研究。

引用本文:

杨志媛, 盖骁敏.老龄化、养老保险与中国城镇居民储蓄率[J]. 经济经纬, 2020,4: 150-158

YANG Zhiyuan, GAI Xiaomin.Population Aging, the Old-age Insurance and Saving Rates of Urban Residents in China[J] Economic Survey, 2020,V37(4): 150-158

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2020/V37/I4/150

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