Estimation of Heterogeneity, Simulation of Future Scenarios and an Empirical Research of Leverage Ratio of Chinese Non-Financial Enterprises
WANG Gui-hu1,2, GUO Jin-long2
1.School of Economics and Trade, Zhengzhou Univearsity of Aeronautics, Zhengzhou 450046, China; 2.Institute of Finance, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, 100028, China;
Abstract：
Using the data of Chinese Statistical Yearbook, the World Bank and IMF, and adopting the dynamic GMM and fixed effect models, this paper estimates the heterogeneity of the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises in China, simulates the scenarios for the next 20 years, and does an empirical analysis. The study finds that:1) the leverage ratio of China’s non-financial enterprises gradually rose to top one in the world after 2010. 2)There is a significant negative correlation between the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises and economic growth. 3)The impact and shock of non-financial enterprises leverage ratio on economic growth is more intense than financial leverage. In reality, the deleveraging of entity enterprises is more urgent and important than financial deleveraging.
WANG Gui-hu, GUO Jin-long.Estimation of Heterogeneity, Simulation of Future Scenarios and an Empirical Research of Leverage Ratio of Chinese Non-Financial Enterprises[J] Economic Survey, 2018,V35(6): 158-164
2018 
