The Imbalance of Cost and Benefit, Evolution of Learning and Reinforcement of the Regional Low Fertility Rate
ZHAO Wei-feng 1, YANG Yun-yan 2, SHI Zhi-lei 2
1.School of Economics， Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073， China；2.School of Public Administration， Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073， China
Abstract：
Based on the survey data of childbearing willingness from Yichang City of Hubei province in 2015, this paper uses cost effectiveness theory and evolutionary game theory in the analysis of the low fertility level and its cause. The result shows that on the one hand, the rising of education costs and marriage squeeze are the important reasons for the rising of cost in having children. On the other hand, the falling of children’s social insurance value leads to the decline in benefits from having children. Therefore, the rising costs and falling benefits lead to the dropping of childbearing willingness. The increasing number of migrant workers aggravates the imbalance between cost and benefit in childbearing and strengthens the falling of fertility desire. Learning effects promote the proliferation of low fertility behavior. These all lead to and strengthen the low fertility rate. The effect of the “Universal Two-Child Policy” is limited on this.
ZHAO Wei-feng， YANG Yun-yan， SHI Zhi-lei .The Imbalance of Cost and Benefit, Evolution of Learning and Reinforcement of the Regional Low Fertility Rate[J] Economic Survey, 2017,V34(5): 109-115
2017 
