领先经济体与新兴经济体实需因素及货币因素对大宗商品价格的影响—

摘要笔者基于MS-VAR模型研究了领先经济体和新兴经济体实体经济因素和货币因素对大宗商品价格的影响。实证结果表明,在经济环境面临较大下行压力时,实体经济因素和货币因素对大宗商品价格的影响更加显著。领先经济体的货币因素对大宗商品价格有显著影响,纳入新兴经济体的货币因素后影响增强的幅度有限;领先经济体的实体经济因素对大宗商品价格影响不显著,纳入新兴经济体的实体经济因素后影响显著增强。在不同的经济时期需要根据不同的经济形势和目标价格采取区别化的政策手段;同时应关注发达国家货币政策对大宗商品市场的溢出效应。

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	贾瑞
	乔家君

关键词：大宗商品领先经济体新兴经济体 MS-VAR模型

Abstract： This paper uses MSIH(2)-VAR(3) model to study the influence of leading economies and emerging economies on the commodity price. Empirical results show that bulk commodity price responds more dramatically when the global economy is in bad situation. Leading economies’ liquidity has a significant influence on commodity price while the influence only improves a little when taking emerging economies into consideration. On the contrary, real economic factors of leading economy have no significant influence on the bulk commodity price, which improves a lot when taking emerging economies into consideration. In different economic times, different policies should be adopted according to different economic situations and target price. At the same time, the spillover effect of developed countries’ currency policy to bulk commodity market should be concerned.

Keywords： Bulk Commodity Leading Economy Emerging Economy Markov-Regime Switching VAR Model

收稿日期 2017-02-21; 接受日期 2017-02-21;

基金资助:北京高等学校国内外联合研究生培养基地项目;国家自然科学基金项目(41171150)

作者简介: 贾瑞(1992- ),女,河南叶县人,硕士研究生,主要从事金融学研究;乔家君(1973- ),男,河南睢县人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事区域经济学研究。

引用本文:

贾瑞,乔家君.领先经济体与新兴经济体实需因素及货币因素对大宗商品价格的影响——基于MS-VAR模型的实证分析[J]. 经济经纬, 2017,1: 100-105

JIA Rui ,QIAO Jia-jun.The Influence of Leading Economy and Emerging Economy on Commodity Prices——A MS-VAR Approach[J] Economic Survey, 2017,V34(1): 100-105

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2017/V34/I1/100