The Nonlinearity of Residents’ Investment Behavior in Housing Market in Response to Monetary Policy
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1.School of Economics, Southwest University of Political Science & Law, Chongqing 401120, China; 2.Chongqing Operations Office, People’s Bank of China, Chongqing 400011, China
Abstract Using data from “Questionnaire on Urban Depositors, 2004-2015” released by People’s Bank of China, this paper constructs a Markov regime switching autoregression model that encompasses variables of market interest rate, the statutory deposit reserve ratio, net currency withdrawal to the central bank, the actual increasing rate for M2 money and residents’ investment behavior in housing market. The results, show that monetary policy is significantly related to the housing market participation with various impacts in different regimes. The strength and duration of the impact that monetary policy has on housing investment show significant nonlinearity. When residents’ housing investments are expanding, the statutory deposit reserve shows positive impact while net currency withdrawal to the central bank and the actual increasing rate for M2 money show negative impact. It is the opposite case with stronger effects when housing investments are taking a downturn.
XIAO Zhong-Yi,HUANG Yu,CHEN Zhi-Yang et al. The Nonlinearity of Residents’ Investment Behavior in Housing Market in Response to Monetary Policy. Economic Survey, 2017, 34(5): 0141.
2017, Vol. 34 
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