Whether National Urban Agglomeration Construction Promote the Urban-rural Coordinated Development: Empirical Evidence Based on Double Machine Learning ——Empirical Evidence Based on Double Machine Learning
Whether National Urban Agglomeration Construction Promote the Urban-rural Coordinated Development: Empirical Evidence Based on Double Machine Learning ——Empirical Evidence Based on Double Machine Learning
YIN Zhigao, LI Heng
School of Economics, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
Abstract Drawing on data of 283 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2006 to 2022, this study constructs a quasi-natural experiment based on the approval of national urban agglomeration development plans and employs the double machine learning method to examine the impact of national urban agglomeration construction on coordinated urban-rural development. The results show that the construction of national-level urban agglomerations can narrow the gap between urban and rural development. Among them, promoting the sharing of public services, fostering agricultural technology progress and improving the potential of the agricultural market are important paths for the construction of national-level urban agglomerations to promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that the construction of national urban agglomerations that are developed, polycentric and located in the Yangtze River Basin tends to have a stronger effect on coordinated development. Moreover, the degree of urban-rural development can gap induce the construction of national urban agglomerations to produce an inclusive effect that is akin to “bringing coal to Newcastle”. However, once this gap exceeds a certain threshold, the construction of national urban agglomerations may potentially lead to a further deterioration of the urban-rural development gap. The expansion analysis reveals that the urban-rural coordinated development effect of the national urban agglomeration construction has the spillover feature of “spatially homogeneity”. In addition, the construction of the national urban agglomeration is also conducive to narrowing the economic gap between cities, which has the policy effect of simultaneously promoting the coordinated development of urban-rural and regions. The conclusions provide theoretical guidance and practical reference for further exerting the economic growth effect of urban agglomerations and promoting the urban-rural coordinated development.
YIN Zhigao,LI Heng. Whether National Urban Agglomeration Construction Promote the Urban-rural Coordinated Development: Empirical Evidence Based on Double Machine Learning ——Empirical Evidence Based on Double Machine Learning. Economic Survey, 2025, 42(5): 075.
2025, Vol. 42 
