Assessment of the Environmental Effects of Three Agricultural Subsidy Reforms: Taking Fertilizer Reduction as an Example
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Abstract Using provincial panel data from 2007 to 2022, a double-difference model is constructed to assess the environmental effects of three agricultural subsidy reforms, with chemical fertilizer reductions serving as an example. The results show that the three agricultural subsidy reforms can significantly reduce chemical fertilizer use. On average, the reforms reduce chemical fertilizer use in the treatment group by 5.1%. After multiple robustness tests, the results remain credible. Heterogeneous analysis indicates that the three agricultural subsidy reforms more effectively reduce the usage of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers than compound fertilizer usage, while it has a smaller impact on compound fertilizer usage. Additionally, the environmental effects of these reforms are more pronounced in non-major grain production areas and in regions with low fertilizer usage percentiles. Mechanism analysis demonstrates that the three agricultural subsidy reforms primarily achieve fertilizer reduction by expanding farm scale, increasing the proportion of grain cultivation and improving farmland quality. The research findings offer valuable insights for enhancing agricultural support and protection subsidy policies, and for better leveraging the effectiveness of subsidies for scaled farming operations and farmland fertility protection.
WEI Zuda,ZHANG Lu. Assessment of the Environmental Effects of Three Agricultural Subsidy Reforms: Taking Fertilizer Reduction as an Example. Economic Survey, 2025, 42(3): 017.
2025, Vol. 42 
