How Does Local Economic Growth Targets Affect Industrial Carbon Emissions Efficiency?
XIA Shuai1, YU Xiang2, WANG Yuhao3
1. School of Economics, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China; 2. School of Business, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China; 3. School of Digital Economics and Management, Nanjing University, Suzhou 215163, China
Abstract Based on data from 269 prefecture-level cities and above from 2006 to 2022, this paper discusses the role and mechanism of local economic growth goals on industrial carbon emission efficiency from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. The study demonstrates the following findings: (1) Local economic growth targets have a significant inverted U-shaped impact on industrial carbon emission efficiency; (2) The mechanism test indicates that moderate economic growth targets can stimulate urban innovation, increase the proportion of the secondary industry and strengthen environmental regulations to improve industrial carbon emission efficiency. In contrast, excessive economic growth targets can impede urban innovation, reduce the proportion of the secondary industry, and relax environmental regulations to suppress industrial carbon emission efficiency; (3) Further analysis indicates that the inverted U-shaped relationship is more pronounced in cities with higher per capita gross regional product, stronger innovation capacity and lower marketization levels. It is also more evident in cities in the central and western regions, cities with weaker comprehensive strength, and cities within the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. After the “new normal” economic phase and when economic growth targets are not achieved as planned, the inverted U-shaped curve becomes steeper. The study provides empirical evidence for accelerating the achievement of China’s “ dual carbon” goal and promoting high-quality economic development
2025, Vol. 42 
