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    ���þ�γ 2018 Issue (1) :122-130
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    �ⲿ������ҹ�ͨ�����͵ķǶԳƴ���ЧӦ——���ڷ�����ARDLģ�͵ķ���
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    1.���ϴ�ѧ ������ó��ѧԺ,���� ��ɳ 410079
2.����ѧԺ ��ѧԺ,�㽭 ���� 314001
    Asymmetric Pass-Through of External Shocks on Chinese Inflation——A Nonlinear ARDL Approach
    LIU Ling1, CHEN Le-yi1, LI Yu-shuang2
    1.School of Economics �� Trade, Hunan University, Changsha 410079, China
2.School of Business, Jiaxing University, Jiaxing 314001, China
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Abstract��

By means of decomposing the external shock into the sum of both positive and negative changes, this paper employs a nonlinear ARDL model to investigate the short and long term asymmetric effects of positive and negative external shocks on Chinese inflation. The empirical results provide evidence of the nonlinear and asymmetric influence of external shocks on domestic inflation. In the long term, international commodity prices presents the positive asymmetry transmission to CPI while the negative conduction is not significant. Besides, the transmission effect from depreciation of RMB is greater than that of appreciation, and so is the transmission effect from global liquidity contraction than that of global liquidity expansion. Both the depreciation of RMB and the decline in global liquidity will lead to a rise in domestic consumer prices by raising import prices. This means that under the current macroeconomic circumstances, such as rate rise of Federal reserve and devaluation of RMB, the central bank should pay close attention to short-term inflation and to strengthen the prevention of external shocks.

Keywords�� External Shocks   Inflation   Asymmetric Pass-Through   NARDL   Nonlinear Co-integration     
�ո����� 2017-03-09; �������� 2018-02-07;
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��������ѧ�����ص���Ŀ(14AJY023);��������ѧ���������Ŀ(15CJY065)

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����, ����һ, ����˫.�ⲿ������ҹ�ͨ�����͵ķǶԳƴ���ЧӦ——���ڷ�����ARDLģ�͵ķ���[J].  ���þ�γ, 2018,1: 122-130
LIU Ling, CHEN Le-yi, LI Yu-shuang.Asymmetric Pass-Through of External Shocks on Chinese Inflation——A Nonlinear ARDL Approach[J]  Economic Survey, 2018,V35(1): 122-130
���ӱ���:  
http://www.jjjw.org/CN/     ��     http://www.jjjw.org/CN/Y2018/V35/I1/122
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