Abstract：
Based on the gravity model of Anderson and van Wincoop, this paper selects sample data from 15 countries along the route, applies the first-order logarithmic linear Taylor series expansion method proposed by Baier and Bergstrand(2009) and estimates multilateral resistance. Then it continues with an empirical study of the real impact of free trade agreements on export trade along the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road and calculates the multilateral trade resistance that it faces.The results show that: first, the traditional gravity model that neglects multilateral resistance obviously underestimates the positive impact of FTA on export trade; second, when multilateral resistance is taken into account, FTA shows significant and steady impacts on promoting export trade, especially so in primary commodity exports; third, the multilateral trade resistance China suffers in its exports to European and African countries is much greater than that to Asian countries. Therefore, China should make good use of the positive impact that FTA has on export trade, accelerate the process of signing FTA with countries along the route, actively upgrade the strategy of the existing FTA, increase language and cultural communication with countries on the route and carry out more research with greater pertinence on countries and regions of different levels of multilateral trade resistance.
LIU Zhen, QIU Zhi-ping, LIU Wei-ming.The Effect of Free Trade Agreements on Export Trade Along The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road 〖STBZ〗[J] Economic Survey, 2017,V34(5): 68-74
2017 
