基于地理加权回归模型的宁镇扬地区同城化研究

摘要笔者以南京、镇江、扬州(宁镇扬)地区为研究对象,基于地理加权回归模型探讨区域经济发展空间及产业特征。结果表明(1)与传统OLS参数估计相比,地理加权回归模型因有效显示空间发展非稳定性而更有利于表征空间作用微观机理;(2)宁镇扬三市之间经济发展存在空间同构性及异质性,但区域间互动性差,“辐射遗漏”现象明显;(3)从产业结构特征看,区域产业结构相似系数不断上升,趋同性明显,然而,由于区域同城化发展水平低,重复建设、资源浪费及恶性竞争现象严重。未来产业发展应进一步破除行政壁垒,整合区域资源、提升区域综合实力,加强产业合作、促进产业集聚、推动错位发展,最终实现区域同城化。

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	李祥妹
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	沈建芬

关键词：地理加权回归模型空间异质性与同质性产业同构与产业集聚宁镇扬地区同城化发展地理加权回归模型空间异质性与同质性产业同构与产业集聚宁镇扬地区同城化发展地理加权回归模型空间异质性与同质性产业同构与产业集聚宁镇扬地区同城化发展地理加权回归模型空间异质性与同质性产业同构与产业集聚宁镇扬地区同城化发展

Abstract： This article identifies the spatial difference, spatial dependence of economic development and industrial structure characteristics of Nanjing, Zhenjiang and Yangzhou (Ningzhenyang Region) by applying geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis to remotely sensed and statistical data. The conclusions indicate that:(1) Compared with traditional OLS model, GWR which can show the instability of spatial development is more effective to explain the spatial effect in spatial development; (2) There is spatial homogeneity and variation in economic development of the three cities, but the interaction between them is not clear, accompanying “omit of radiation”; (3) Industrial structure coefficient of similarity in the region is growing, indicating the spatial concentration. Because of the lagged management and the lack of coordination, problems such as repeated construction, waste of resources and cut-throat competition are gradually rising up. In addition, breaking administrative division, integrating regional resources, promoting comprehensive strength and realizing the regional integration are the main directions for the region’s development.

Keywords： Geographically Weighted Regression Spatial Homogeneity and Variation Industrial Similarity and Concentration Ningzhenyang Region Regional Integration Geographically Weighted Regression Spatial Homogeneity and Variation Industrial Similarity and Concentration Ningzhenyang Region Regional Integration Geographically Weighted Regression Spatial Homogeneity and Variation Industrial Similarity and Concentration Ningzhenyang Region Regional Integration Geographically Weighted Regression Spatial Homogeneity and Variation Industrial Similarity and Concentration Ningzhenyang Region Regional Integration

收稿日期 2014-03-11; 接受日期 2016-01-19;

基金资助:教育部人文社会科学一般项目(13YJC630081);江苏省哲学社会科学研究重点项目(2011ZDIXM001);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(KYZ201129);江苏省第四期“333”人才工程项目联合资助

作者简介: 李祥妹(1973-),女,河南泌阳人,博士,教授,主要从事资源与环境管理、区域发展研究;杜渐(1990-),女,江苏盐城人,硕士,主要从事产业经济研究;沈建芬(1964- ),女,江苏江阴人,副教授,主要从事空间计量经济研究。

引用本文:

李祥妹,杜渐,沈建芬.基于地理加权回归模型的宁镇扬地区同城化研究[J]. 经济经纬, 2016,1: 14-18

LI Xiang-mei, DU Jian, SHEN Jian-fen.The Study of Regional Integration Based on GWR of Nanjing-Zhenjiang-Yangzhou (NZY) Region[J] Economic Survey, 2016,V33(1): 14-18

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2016/V33/I1/14