中国资本项目开放的增长效应——基于内生增长模型的分析

摘要基于1994—2018年中国中长期资本项目数据,构建开放条件下的内生增长模型,研究资本项目开放对经济增长的影响。实证结果表明:资本项目开放在一定前提下能够促进经济增长,但同时也会带来对外负债升高的风险;后工业化国家,资本的产出弹性下降,资本开放带来的负债风险也随之降低;人口老龄化国家,面临储蓄率下降,资本项目开放有利于维持较高的经济增速。本研究的政策意义在于论证了中国推进资本项目开放改革的时机合理性;统筹推进汇率市场化和人民币国际化改革,坚持双向开放,让中国与世界共享资本要素自由流动的成果。

	Service

	把本文推荐给朋友
	加入我的书架
	加入引用管理器
	Email Alert
	RSS
	作者相关文章
	方晨曦

关键词：资本项目开放内生增长理论外汇管理改革

Abstract： Based on China's medium-and long-term capital account data from 1994 to 2018, this paper constructs an endogenous growth model under open conditions and studies the effects of capital account liberalization on economic growth.The empirical results show that capital account liberalization can promote economic growth under certain conditions, but at the same time it also rises the risk of excessive foreign borrowing. For post-industrial countries, due to the decline of capital output elasticity, the debt risk of excessive foreign borrowing caused by capital account liberalization is also reduced. However, for countries with an aging population, in the case of a decline in the savings rate, capital account liberalization is conducive to maintain a high economic growth rate. The significance of this study is that it demonstrates the rationality of the timing for China to promote the reform of capital account opening up. It is suggested that we should promote the reform of exchange rate marketization and RMB internationalization comprehensively, adhere to two-way opening of the capital market, and let China share the fruits of the free flow of capital elements with the world.

Keywords： Capital Account Opening Endogenous Growth Theory Reform of Foreign Exchange Management

收稿日期 2020-05-19; 接受日期 ;

作者简介: 方晨曦(1988— ),男,河南开封人,博士研究生,主要从事金融政策研究。

引用本文:

方晨曦.中国资本项目开放的增长效应——基于内生增长模型的分析[J]. 经济经纬, 2021,2: 151-160

FANG Chenxi.Analysis on the Growth Effect of China's Capital Account Opening: Based on Endogenous Growth Model[J] Economic Survey, 2021,V38(2): 151-160

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2021/V38/I2/151

陈昌兵.2014.可变折旧率估计及资本存量测算[J].经济研究(12):72-85.
陈中飞,王曦.2019.资本账户子项目开放的经济增长效应及中国应用[J].管理世界(1):97-114,227.
傅元海,张丹,孙爱军.2010.FDI技术溢出影响经济增长方式的理论研究[J].当代财经(6):75-84.
黄益平,王勋.2010.中国资本项目管制有效性分析[J].金融发展评论(6):107-134.
李轩,潘英丽.2013.1994—2010年中国资本账户开放度约束型测量改进[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版)(3):28-34.
刘晓光,刘元春,王健.2018.杠杆率、经济增长与衰退[J].中国社会科学(6):50-70,205.
吕越,李美玉.2020.贸易便利化与全球价值链嵌入[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版)(5)46-57.
马勇,陈雨露.2017.金融杠杆、杠杆波动与经济增长[J].经济研究(6):31-45.
马勇,王芳.2018.金融开放、经济波动与金融波动[J].世界经济(2):20-44.
彭红枫,朱怡哲.2019.资本账户开放、金融稳定与经济增长[J].国际金融研究(2):3-12.
汪丽娟,吴福象,蒋欣娟.2019.双向FDI技术溢出能否助推经济高质量发展[J].财经科学(4):64-79.
尹志超,张诚.2019.女性劳动参与对家庭储蓄率的影响[J].经济研究(4):165-181.
张平,刘霞辉,张晓晶,等.2010.资本化扩张与赶超型经济的技术进步[J].经济研究(5):4-20.
BEKAERT G.2010.Financial openness and productivity[J].World Development,39(1):1-19.
BUSSIERE M,FRATZSCHER M.2008.Financial openness and growth:Short-run gain,long-run pain?[J].Review of International Economics,16(1):69-95.
CHEN J,QUANG T.2014.The impact of international financial integration on economic growth:New evidence on threshold effects[J].Economic modelling,42(3):475-489.
COE D T,HELPMAN E.1993.International R&D spillovers[Z].CEPR Discussion Papers,39(5):859-887.
EDISON H,LEVINE R,RICCI L A.2004.Capital account liberalization and economic performance:Survey and synthesis[Z].IMF Staff Papers,51(2):220-256.
EDISON H,LEVINE R,RICCI L A,et al.2002.International financial integration and economic growth[J]Journal of International Money and Finance,21(5):749-776.
ENG Y K,WONG C Y.2016.Asymmetric growth effect of capital flows:Evidence and quantitative theory[J].Economic Systems,40(1):64-81.
HENRY P B.2003.Capital-account liberalization,the cost of capital and economic growth[J].The American Economic Review,93(2):18-33.
KRAAY A.1998.In search of macroeconomic effect of capital account liberalization[Z].World Bank Working Paper.
MCKINNON R I.1973.Money and capital in economic development[J].American Political Review,68(4):1822-1824.
MCKINNON R I.1991.The order of economic liberalization:Financial control in the transition to a market economy[M].Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press.
OBSTFELD M.1998.The global capital market:Benefactor or menace?[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,12(4):9-30.
QUINN D P,INCLAN C.1997.The origins of financial openness:A study of current and capital account liberalization[J]American Journal of Political Science,41(3):771-813.
QUINN D P,TOYODA M A.2008.Does capital account liberalization lead to growth?[J].The Review of Financial Studies,21(3):1403-1449.
RODRIK D.1998.Who needs capital account convertibility?[J].Princeton Essays in International finance,20(7):1-10.
VILLANUEVA,DELANO S.2008.Macroeconomic policies for stable growth external debt,adjustment and growth[Z].World Scientific Book Chapters.