异质性企业出口持续时间及影响因素分析

摘要

利用中国工业企业1998—2008年的数据,采用非参数K-M生存分析法和离散生存模型考察了中国企业出口持续时间特征及其影响因素。研究结果表明:中国企业的出口持续时间中位数仅为4年,出口危险率存在显著的负时间依存性,出口第一年的危险率高达25%,当企业出口4年后,其出口危险率迅速下降。企业的异质性特征如生产率、规模、销售份额、金融状况、出口密集度等因素显著影响企业的出口危险率,不同所有制结构企业的出口生存率差异较大,内资企业的出口生存率远低于外资企业。

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	张鹏辉

关键词：出口危险率离散生存模型企业异质性负时间依存性

Abstract：

Using the data from Chinese industrial enterprise database during 1998-2008, this paper adopts non-parameter Kaplan-Meier method and discrete duration model to empirically investigate the export duration in Chinese firms and its influencing factors. The result shows the median duration of Chinese exporters is only 4 years and export hazard rate has a significant negative duration dependence with the first year export hazard rate being as high as 25% which drops significantly after 4 years of business. Heterogeneity of firms, such as productivity, scale, market share, financial condition, export intensity and so on, have significant impact on firm’s export hazard rate. The ownership structure also brings about huge differences in survival rate, with that of domestic-owned firms being much lower than that of foreign-owned firms.

Keywords： Export Hazard Rate Discrete Duration Model Firm Heterogeneity Negative Duration Dependence

收稿日期 2016-11-01; 接受日期 2018-02-07;

基金资助:

国家社会科学基金项目(15BJY157)

作者简介: 张鹏辉(1989-),男,福建仙游人,博士,经济师,主要从事国际贸易与经济增长、货币政策与经济波动研究。

引用本文:

张鹏辉.异质性企业出口持续时间及影响因素分析[J]. 经济经纬, 2018,1: 70-77

ZHANG Peng-hui.An Analysis of Export Duration of Heterogeneous Firms and Its Influencing Factors[J] Economic Survey, 2018,V35(1): 70-77

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2018/V35/I1/70

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