人民币有效汇率指数:基于净进口与净出口贸易伙伴货币篮子视角

摘要笔者结合我国对外贸易的具体特点,将传统的人民币有效汇率指数货币篮子细分为净出口货币篮子与净进口货币篮子,从我国净进口贸易伙伴与净出口贸易伙伴视角测度了人民币有效汇率指数的变化情况,对人民币有效汇率指数体系做出了有效补充。在此基础上,笔者对我国长期贸易顺差现象进行了分析,认为人民币升值对改善我国与净出口伙伴国(地区)之间长期大量顺差状况的效果甚微。此外,通过净出口指数、净进口指数以及BIS人民币广义指数的对比分析,笔者发现三者相关性高的主要原因是中国贸易伙伴的货币均受到美元的影响。中国政府应继续推进人民币汇率机制的市场化改革,需要对一揽子货币中的非美元货币赋予更大权重。

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关键词：货币篮子有效汇率指数净出口指数净进口指数贸易顺差

Abstract： Taking the characteristic of China’s foreign trade into consideration, this paper created the net import partner and net export partner currency baskets based on the currency baskets of traditional RMB effective exchange rate, and measured the fluctuation of RMB effective exchange rate from the view of China’s net import partners and net export partners respectively, thus made an effective supplement for the traditional RMB effective exchange rate. Based on that, the author analyzes the phenomenon of China’s long term trade surplus, and it indicates that the appreciation of RMB exchange rate has little effect in addressing the problem. Additionally, while making comparison among the net import index, net export index and the BIS broad index, we conclude that the three indices are highly correlated; it is mainly due to the deep influence by US dollar. It is suggest thated the weight of US dollar should be reduced with reference to currency baskets.

Keywords： Currency Baskets Effective Exchange Rate Index Net Export Index Net Import Index Trade Surplus

收稿日期 2015-11-12; 接受日期 2015-11-12;

基金资助:国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(13AJL008)

作者简介: 汪洋(1972-),男,江西南昌人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事国际金融理论与实务研究;荣璟(1989-),男,安徽芜湖人,博士研究生,主要从事国际金融理论与实务研究。

引用本文:

汪洋, 荣璟.人民币有效汇率指数:基于净进口与净出口贸易伙伴货币篮子视角[J]. 经济经纬, 2015,6: 47-53

WANG Yang, RONG Jing.RMB Effective Exchange Rate Index: Based on Currency Baskets of China’s Net Import and Net Export Partners[J] Economic Survey, 2015,V32(6): 47-53

链接本文:

http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/ 或 http://www.jjjw.org.cn/CN/Y2015/V32/I6/47