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    经济经纬 2012 Issue (1) :142-147
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    股权分置改革与股市波动结构——基于EEMD方法的实证研究
    傅传锐
    (福州大学 管理学院, 福建 福州 350108)
    Reform of Non tradable Shares and Structure of Stock Market Volatility ——An Empirical Study Based on EEMD
    FU Chuan rui
    (School of Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108, China)
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摘要 笔者利用系综经验模式分解方法(EEMD)考察了股改启动前、股改期间与股改基本完成后上证综指与深证成指的波动结构特征及其变化。实证结果表明:与股改基本完成前相比,股改后我国股市的波动结构发生显著变化,即短期波动成分成为解释股市总体波动的最主要因素。同时,中期波动成分的平均周期大幅延长。股改后限售股大规模且集中解禁与减持对股市的冲击强化了市场的短线投机行为,引发股市短期波动急剧增加。而人民币升值、次贷危机等导致中期波动更具持久性。
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傅传锐
关键词股权分置改革   股市波动结构   EEMD方法   信号重构     
Abstract: The author adopted the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to investigate the characteristics of the volatility structures of Shanghai composite index and Shenzhen component index and their variance before, during and after the reform of non tradable shares. The empirical results show that compared with before the reform, significant changes have taken place in the volatility structure of China’s stock market after the reform. That is, the short term volatility component becomes the most important factor explaining the total volatility of security market. Meanwhile the average period of medium term volatility component is prolonged greatly. The impact of large scale and concentrated ban lifting and sales of huge amount of restricted shares on the stock market strengthened the short term speculation behavior and triggered a dramatic increase in short term volatility. Besides, RMB appreciation, sub prime crisis and other great events led to permanent medium term fluctuation.
Keywordsreform of non tradable shares   structure of stock market volatility   ensemble empirical mode decomposition   signal reconstruction     
收稿日期 2011-08-13; 接受日期 2012-01-13;
作者简介: 傅传锐(1982-),男,福建福州人,博士,福州大学管理学院讲师,主要从事公司金融与资本市场研究。
引用本文:   
傅传锐.股权分置改革与股市波动结构——基于EEMD方法的实证研究[J].  经济经纬, 2012,1: 142-147
FU Chuan rui.Reform of Non tradable Shares and Structure of Stock Market Volatility ——An Empirical Study Based on EEMD[J]  Economic Survey, 2012,V(1): 142-147
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